By Alex Wiederspiel, WV Metronews
MORGANTOWN — The timing of Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement significantly ramps up anxiety and pressure over the approaching midterms, a WVU political science professor said.
The threat of a potential “blue wave” election with Democrats aiming to regain power in Congress, should have the Republican majority in the Senate wanting to move quickly to confirm a successor after the 81-year-old Kennedy leaves the court July 31.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell confirmed as much to national media outlets Wednesday afternoon, suggesting the Senate would like to vote on a nominee for the Supreme Court during the fall.
“I think there are a lot of moderate Republicans out there who are worried about losing their seat that now think to themselves, ‘Jeez, what’s this going to do?’ Professor John Kilwein said. “If the Democratic base was riled up already, this is going to put them into a whirling dervish.”
RealClearPolitics lists 32 seats in the House of Representatives, 28 currently held by Republicans, as toss-ups heading into November’s election. Data and polling indicates that Democrats have a chance at claiming one or both chambers of Congress in November, Kilwein said.
“I do think it’s going to have an immediate impact on the race,” said Kilwein, noting the timing of Kennedy’s retirement mirrors that of Justice Antonin Scalia’s death nine months before the 2016 presidential election.
Then President Barack Obama nominated jurist Merrick Garland to fill Scalia’s vacant seat, but Senate Republicans chose not to hold hearings for Garland. Eventually they confirmed Neil Gorsuch following Donald Trump’s historic upset in November 2016.
Already, there are calls from Democrats in the Senate to wait on confirmation hearings until after a new body is seated next January.
“Sen. McConnell set the new standard by giving the American people their say in the upcoming election before court vacancies are filled,” Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin said in a statement. “With so much at stake for the people of our country, the U.S. Senate must be consistent and consider the president’s nominee once the new Congress is seated in January.”
Unwilling to risk post-midterm uncertainty, the Senate GOP figures to expedite confirmation, Kilwein said. The current makeup of the Supreme Court is five Republican-appointees and four appointed by Democratic presidents.
“You could see another person like Gorsuch, and if that’s the case, then the court is going to move significantly to the right,” Kilwein said. “I could see Roe v. Wade overturned or significantly narrowed, and a whole host of other issues.”
Kennedy, 81, has often been described as the swing vote on the Court, despite holding conservative credentials when first appointed to the court by then President Ronald Reagan.
“It’s just an indication of the court moving significantly to the right so that somebody who seems like a more conservative pick when he was appointed now has become this kind of right-of-center swing vote,” Kilwein said.
Even with the a majority, Senate Republicans must thread the needle to some extent with their stances on Kennedy’s replacement, Kilwein said
“Trying to keep people happy among religious conservatives that you were committing to overturning Roe,” he said. “But on the flip side, and especially in this coming election, you could really alienate a lot of female Republican voters in the so-called Philadelphia suburbs.”
CNN reported Wednesday that President Trump’s shortlist includes mostly names mentioned during his 2016 campaign, including Brett Kavanaugh, Raymond M. Kethledge, Amul Thapar and Joan Larsen.
“What’s he going to do? Kilwein said. “Well a rational politician might say, ‘Maybe I’m not going to pick a fire-and-brimstone candidate. Maybe I’m going to try to come more middle of the road because I don’t want to do what I’m suggesting might happen.”
Alex Wiederspiel is news director and afternoon anchor of WAJR-AM radio in Morgantown.
