MORGANTOWN – PJM Interconnection – the regional power grid operator – is predicting a “significant growth in electricity demand” over the next 20 years.
PJM estimates the peak summer demand for its 13-state region (including Washington D.C.) will grow by about 70,000 megawatts: from 154,144 MW in 2025 to 220,224 MW by 2040 and 228,544 MW by 2045.
The record summer peak for the PJM footprint occurred in 2006 at 165,563 MW, it said.
What do those big numbers mean? Estimates for how many homes are powered by a single megawatt vary widely but Mon Power says 1 MW of solar energy can power about 173 homes.
PJM’s projection comes from its 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast Report.
Looking at what’s driving the demand, PJM reiterated that it has warned that a capacity shortage could affect its system as early as the 2026-2027 delivery year, which begins June 1, 2026.
It cites three factors, which have been mentioned in previous reports in The Dominion Post:
- The demand for electricity is growing at the fastest pace in years, primarily from the proliferation of data centers, electrification of buildings and vehicles, and manufacturing.
- Thermal power plants (primarily coal-fired) – which provide the dispatchable generation needed to maintain reliability – are retiring at a rapid pace due to government and private sector policies as well as economics.
- New replacement resources with the needed reliability attributes aren’t being built fast enough.
PJM said winter demand peaks will remain lower than summer peaks, but the gap will start to close.
For example, the 2024-2025 winter demand figure is 136,127 MW – 18,017 MW less than the projected 2025 summer demand. But the projected 2044-2045 winter demand will be 218,760 MW, only 9,784 MW less than the 2045 summer demand.
PJM said its record-high winter peak occurred just recently, when PJM served a preliminary load of about 145,000 MW on the morning of Jan. 22, according to preliminary load estimates. Current generating capacity in PJM is about 183,000 MW.
Aftab Khan, PJM’s executive vice president, Operations, Planning & Security, said, “This forecast captures the dramatic increases in future energy demand, as evidenced by the last two years when data center development has grown exponentially.”
PJM’s Board of Managers has directed several efforts intended to bring capacity online more quickly and efficiently, and to make sure price signals accurately reflect supply-demand fundamentals.
These efforts include:
- Interconnection Process Reform: PJM said it has worked with stakeholders for several years to improve the process for new generation to connect to the grid. About 50,000 MW of projects are now through the PJM study process and clear to build. Between 2024 and 2026, PJM expects to process about 170,000 MW worth of generation projects, mostly renewables and storage. PJM planners and impacted transmission owners have studied about 1,200 projects since interconnection process reform was implemented in July 2023.
- Reliability Resource Initiative: a narrowly tailored, one-time proposal filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that is designed to expedite the interconnection of a limited number of shovel-ready generating resources. A FERC decision on the PJM RRI proposal is expected in February 2025.
- Capacity Interconnection Rights Transfer Reforms: PJM will soon file with FERC a reform package endorsed by stakeholders designed to facilitate an expedited interconnection process for a replacement resource seeking to use the Capacity Interconnection Rights of a deactivating resource.
Mon Power plans
Mon Power serves about 395,000 customers in 34 West Virginia counties, including Monongalia, Preston and Marion.
Mon Power told The Dominion Post that it doesn’t share its state load forecasts externally. But parent company FirstEnergy has an Energize365 program.
The program, it said, “is intended to help ensure we’re ready for the increased demand for power in the years ahead. The program will help us accommodate new residential, commercial and industrial growth – including the power-intensive needs of data centers in our region – while also helping to lessen the frequency and duration of outages.”
Among the provisions of Energize365:
- Enhancing the high-voltage transmission system to make it more resilient, reduce future maintenance costs and increase flexibility to help grid operators respond more swiftly to variable conditions.
- Incorporating digital smart meters that can empower customers to manage their energy use and costs. By 2028, FirstEnergy expects to have installed smart meters for approximately 86% of its customers. A smart meter collects electricity usage information and sends that data to the local utility through a secure telecommunications connection. It can reduce the number of estimated bills through automated readings, help the utility more quickly respond to power outages and help customers learn more about their energy use.
- Investing in new technologies and tools that support increased renewables and distributed energy resources.
- Connecting renewable resources such as wind and solar – home based and large scale: for example, the five solar projects in West Virginia (the Maidsville project is online and the Rivesville project is under construction).
- Preparing for demand growth driven by data centers, electric vehicles and electric-powered industrial equipment and home products.
