The red wave of Republican Party registration continues to wash over West Virginia.
The latest figures show that 44 of the state’s 55 counties have more Republicans than Democrats. The biggest flips are Kanawha and Fayette counties, two long-time Democratic strongholds.
Voter registration data from the clerk’s offices in the two counties show Republicans narrowly outnumber Democrats in Kanawha County 42,314 to 42,251. In Fayette County, the Republican advantage is 9,202 to 9,174. (The figures for the two counties were released by the state Republican Party as of mid-July. The remaining registration figures come from the end of June numbers from the Secretary of State’s Office.)
No, that is not much of a difference, but each county has been trending that way for several years. In 2020, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Kanawha County 51,000 to 40,000, while in deep blue Fayette County, there were nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans (13,219 to 7,706).
Brooke and Wetzel have also flipped in recent months, while Clay and Summers are headed that way. Monongalia County still has more Democrats — 22,759 to 21,031 — however, there were nearly 8,000 more Democrats just four years ago.
Statewide, 41% of all registered voters are Republican, while just 30% are Democrats. Twenty-five percent (296,024) are no party/independent.
West Virginia Republican Party Chairman Matt Herridge said on Talkline that the registration advantage in Kanawha County has symbolic, as well as practical, implications.
“This is the seat of West Virginia power, so to speak, in the political world,” he said. “Typically, your capital cities in any state tend to lean a little more to the left or toward the Democratic Party. The fact that this has happened in Kanawha County is a very big deal.”
The only counties remaining where Democrats hold the majority are Boone, Braxton, Clay, Gilmer, Logan, Marion, McDowell, Mingo, Monongalia, Summers and Webster. In 2016, Democrats had the registration advantage in 46 counties.
There are a number of reasons for the dramatic shift.
Our politics have become nationalized, and the Democratic Party has shifted more to the left in recent years on issues like climate change that appeal to fewer West Virginians. As registration has shifted, the national Democratic Party apparatus seems to have given up on the state.
Republican leaders and party organizers have done a better job than Democrats of recruiting candidates and running campaigns. The movement was supplemented by an increasing number of candidates who saw better opportunities with the GOP than the Democratic Party.
Donald Trump’s popularity in West Virginia has inspired more Republicans to run for office and more voters to register as Republican. No top-of-the-ticket Republican has had as much support in West Virginia as Trump, adding heft to the red wave.
The thing about a wave is that it eventually dissipates, but when? The flip of Kanawha and Fayette counties suggests the wave shows no sign of weakening. Logan, McDowell and Mingo Counties have the most significant numeric advantage for Democrats. At the rate things are going, they may soon be the lone Democratic islands left in a sea of red.
