Fractured GOP the biggest obstacle
Faced with looming deadlines to produce a federal budget, the top Republican in Congress, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and the top Democrat, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, agree that Pentagon funding for the fiscal year that started Oct. 1 should be $886 billion.
But this being Washington, their handshake deal differs on non-defense funding, with the Democrats pegging it at $773 billion, while the GOP says it is $704 billion.
Still, that difference of $70 billion is still small compared to the chasm among Johnson’s Republican conference, which is seeing its very narrow margin get smaller and smaller.
We hope Johnson, on the job for only 10 weeks, got some rest during the extended Christmas break because the days and weeks ahead will be harrowing for him and the country.
Under a November plan to avoid a government shutdown that only passed the GOP House with the weight of Democratic votes, four of the dozen annual spending bills need to be passed by Jan. 19, with the remaining eight, including defense, have to be passed two weeks later, on Feb. 2. Otherwise, there will be an election year shutdown of the federal government.
Back in November, there were 222 Republicans and 213 Democrats, a five-vote margin. But on Dec. 1, George Santos was expelled, reducing the GOP roster to 221. Then ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy resigned, effective Dec. 31, bringing the current party strength to 220. Ohio Republican Bill Johnson is quitting soon to become president of Youngstown State University. His last day will be Jan. 21, making it just 219. The Democrats will still have 213.
Meanwhile, the hard-right members are angry that Johnson isn’t cutting more and their firm opposition poses a threat to him keeping power. The very narrow margin that McCarthy tried to govern with did him in and now Johnson has far less to spare on his side of the aisle.
The party spread in the House could get even tighter should the Democrats win the special election to fill the Nassau/Queens Santos seat on Feb. 13.
And there are other important dates ahead that can complicate this business of government, notably the Iowa caucuses being held today. Should Hawkeye State Republicans give Trump a black eye this week, his power to damage negotiations in Washington will be weakened, but the more momentum he gets toward his third consecutive nomination for the White House will only make it harder to reach reasonable agreement on the budget for Johnson.
Not factored in the budget math are still President Biden’s pending request for billions in additional aid for Ukraine and Israel, American allies fighting wars following invasions with House Republicans insisting on a large-scale reform of immigration as the price, even while battles rage in Europe and the Mideast.
President Joe Biden will be delivering his State of the Union address to the nation on March 7. That’s less than two months away, but these next few weeks will determine the state of the union and if Americans remain up to the challenge to self-govern ourselves through accommodation and compromise or if we are doomed to a future of permanent rancor and discord.
