MORGANTOWN — Maybe it was former president Teddy Roosevelt who could best sum up the first half of the WVU men’s basketball season.
“Believe you can and you’re halfway there,” the former president once said.
The Mountaineers (12-3, 3-1 Big 12) are halfway through Darian DeVries’ first regular season as head coach, marking the start of the second half with today’s 8 p.m. game against No. 10 Houston (12-3, 4-0), at the Fertitta Center, where the Cougars have won 31 straight dating back to Jan. 22, 2023.
Belief is the one sure thing DeVries has instilled into the Mountaineers since he took over the program a little more than nine months ago.
Injuries have piled up, with Tucker DeVries expected to miss his eighth consecutive game today. Jayden Stone has yet to play in the regular season, while Amani Hansberry and K.J. Tenner have also missed time.
Through it all, Darian DeVries has yet to blink. “No excuses” stretches across his T-shirt, as he drew up plans good enough to take a short-handed roster and beat the likes of Kansas and Gonzaga.
“What’s happening with this team is it’s growing in confidence,” DeVries said after the win against Kansas. “Confidence is a very dangerous thing. All of a sudden, you can start to achieve things that no one else thought was possible.”
That sums up the first half. We take a look at projections for the second half.
What the computers say
Dig around the internet long enough, you’ll find all kinds of projections for college basketball.
In West Virginia’s case, the brains behind the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) sees the Mountaineers sliding a bit in the second half.
Heading into today’s game, the RPI’s math predicts WVU will finish an even 10-10 in Big 12 play, or going 7-9 over the second half.
That would project out to a 19-12 overall record and a likely berth into the NCAA tournament.
At least, that’s what the computer computes. At 19 wins, WVU has a 74% chance of making the NCAA tourney. Get to 20 wins, that goes up to 94.7%. At 18 wins, the probability falls to 28%, so 19 seems to be the Mountaineers’ magic number.
The computer also projects WVU finishing seventh in the Big 12 and gives the Mountaineers a 51% chance to reach the quarterfinals of the conference tournament and a 12.3% chance to reach the semifinals.
WVU’s current strength of schedule ranks 33rd in the country and projects to go up with nine games remaining against opponents in the top 100 of the RPI. The Mountaineers played seven top 100 opponents over their first 15 games.
Of the 16 games remaining, it is an even 8-8 split between home and road games.
What about the Cougars?
WVU is about to play the Big 12 darling, because the computers predict Houston will win the Big 12 by going 13-3 over its final 16 games.
According to ESPN analytics, the Cougars have a 93.4% chance of winning today’s matchup.
Kelvin Sampson’s blitz defense is the main reason why.
Houston’s defense has allowed just three opponents to score more than 60 points in a game this season, with those three — Auburn, Alabama and San Diego State — all counting as the Cougars’ losses.
It is a man-to-man defense that supplies constant pressure on the ball, with constant switching of ball screens and rarely allowing opponents to drive into the paint.
Houston is coming off an 87-57 road win against Kansas State, in which the Wildcats were forced into taking more than half of their shots from 3-point range and Houston outscored K-State 52-18 in the paint.
“If I were to close my eyes and think about what I would want my team to look like, it would be what we’re doing right now,” Sampson said earlier this season. “I think defense is the one area where you have to be comfortable coaching your way. You can’t be someone else on defense. Our defense is our defense.”
The fatigue factor
West Virginia’s biggest obstacle for the second half of the season may have nothing to do with computer projections or scheduling.
It just may be simple fatigue.
“We’re a little short-handed, and so we do get a little fatigued sometimes in the second half,” Darian DeVries said after WVU’s 78-70 win against Colorado on Sunday. “We just don’t have the bodies we need to sub and then we got into a little foul trouble on top of that. We did get worn out a little bit.”
The Mountaineers are expected to get Tenner back into the rotation soon, but there is no expectation on whether or not Tucker DeVries makes it back.
The Colorado game also marked a point of no return of sorts on what decision will be made with Tucker’s eligibility.
The guard will not be eligible to apply for a medical redshirt if he plays another game the rest of this season, meaning a tough decision will have to be made.
If Tucker does get medically cleared at some point, can he get back to full speed to help this team, or is it better to simply shut him down and wait for next season?
To this point, Darian DeVries has not given a public opinion on the subject.
