The 2024 presidential election, we are told, will be decided in a handful of battleground states. The race is so tight that a single Electoral College vote could determine the outcome. And that explains the great focus on Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, which often votes Democrat but not always.
Nebraska is one of only two states that splits its Electoral College votes rather than use a winner-take-all system. Each of its three congressional districts awards one Electoral College vote to whomever wins the popular vote within the district. (Maine is the other state.)
The 2nd district is mostly Omaha. It went for Barack Obama in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020 — but Donald Trump in 2016. Democratic strategists like to call it the Blue Dot in a sea of red. Some refer to the district as the seventh or eighth battleground state.
There are scenarios where one Electoral College vote can decide who wins the White House. In 1876, Republican Rutherford B. Hayes won the presidency by that tiny amount (albeit after a long battle over 20 disputed electoral votes).
Pertinent to the 2024 election is how Kamala Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, might help move things in the Democrats’ direction in unexpected places. Walz is a son of rural Nebraska, and the 2nd congressional district does include a few areas heavily dependent on agriculture, Saunders County and part of Sarpy County.
Walz spent summers working on family farms far from the bright lights of Omaha, largely in and around a town called Valentine (been there, great burgers). Valentine is the government hub for Cherry County. And as some idea of how rural Cherry County is, consider this: Cherry County is about five times the size of Rhode Island and has less than 1% of its population.
Walz also spent time teaching in the railroad town of Alliance. Located way west on Nebraska’s panhandle, one of Alliance’s claims to fame is Carhenge, a replica of England’s Stonehenge cleverly constructed from old vehicles.
Walz’s sunny heartland vibe is seen helping the Democratic ticket in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. To be realistic, few expect the Minnesota governor’s roots in the sprawling 3rd congressional district to overcome the pull of MAGA in this land of farmers and ranchers. No Democrat has won a plurality within its current boundaries since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936. Nebraska’s smaller but largely rural 1st district just west of Omaha is also reliably Republican.
But Walz could conceivably round up enough votes on the dirt roads of Saunders and Sarpy Counties to ensure that the Blue Dot stays blue come November. Jane Kleeb, who heads the Nebraska Democratic Party, has specialized in bridging the political divide between urban liberals and more conservative rural voters — to the extent possible.
Seeing the potential threat posed by Nebraska’s tradition of allocating Electoral College votes by congressional district, the Trump-controlled Republican Party has been trying to move the state to a winner-take-all system, which would surely extinguish the Blue Dot’s power.
The problem is, Maine’s political leaders are threatening to adopt winner-take-all, if Nebraska does. And should that happen, the electoral vote that Maine’s rural 2nd district has sent Trump’s way would almost certainly be canceled out by the state’s Democratic majority.
Kleeb has suggested that rather than change the rules right before an election, Trump should try to compete for 2nd district votes. What an original thought.
Meanwhile, in the not impossible event that the results of the 2024 presidential election hinge on one electoral vote, the 2nd congressional district could make all the difference. It may become Nebraska native Walz’s mission to keep the Blue Dot blue.
