by Steven Roberts
Happy Valley, Ore., population 23,733, played a small but significant role in American politics last week. That’s the hometown of Janelle Bynum, a state legislator who won the Democratic nomination for Congress against Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, one of 17 vulnerable Republicans now representing districts carried by Joe Biden in 2020.
Chavez-DeRemer won two years ago by defeating a far-left Democrat, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who ran again this year and lost the primary to Bynum, a more moderate candidate. As a result, Democrats now have a better chance of winning back the seat — and organizing the House next year.
“There’s so much at stake this November and the path to flipping the House,” Bynum said on election night. “The majority runs right through our district.”
The rematch between Biden and Donald Trump dominates the political conversation, but the contest for control of Congress is equally consequential, and it should get more attention. Democrats hold a one-seat margin in the Senate, Republicans a four-seat advantage in the House. In places like Happy Valley, small decisions are being made, outside the national spotlight, that could hugely affect the balance of power in Washington, no matter who wins the White House.
Local issues are always important in congressional races, but both parties must grapple with a distinct national trend: the decline of ticket-splitters. For instance, in the last two presidential years, only one state, Maine, has elected a senator from one party (Republican Susan Collins) while backing the presidential candidate of the other party.
This trend helps the Republicans as they try to recapture the Senate. With veteran Democrat Joe Manchin retiring, deep red West Virginia will certainly replace him with a Republican, Gov. Jim Justice. The most endangered Democrats seeking a new term, Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, represent states that strongly favor Trump.
Biden’s dismal poll numbers are certainly a drag on all down-ballot Democrats, but recent surveys indicate some might be able to survive anyway. A New York Times/Siena poll of four swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona — showed a generic Democratic Senate candidate leading a generic Republican by 5 points, while Biden trailed Trump by 6 points. Moreover, the Democratic Senate candidates in all four states run well ahead of their party’s presidential nominee.
“Ticket-splitters are not abundant — about 10% of Trump voters back the Democratic candidate for Senate in the four states, while about 5% of Biden supporters back the Republican,” reports the Times. “But those voters are enough to give Democrats a chance at holding the Senate.”
Another key factor: Three of those Democrats are incumbents — Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin and Jacky Rosen in Nevada — and the party’s choice in Arizona, Ruben Gallego, is a six-term House member. Republican spokesman Mike Berg derided them as “a bunch of career politicians who have been totally corrupted by the D.C. swamp,” but in fact their experience is a tremendous political asset.
None of their GOP challengers has ever held elected office, and the same is true of the Republicans running against Tester and Brown. “When you’ve never run for office before and you run high up for the Senate — and particularly if you’ve been a business leader where everyone says yes to you — you’re a crappy candidate,” Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, tells Politico. “It will get worse for them.”
By contrast, however, the decline of ticket-splitting favors the Democrats as they try to retake the House. Of the 17 seats still held by Republicans in pro-Biden districts, five are in New York and five in California — states that heavily back the president.
The Democrats have already picked up one New York seat Republicans won last time. After incumbent George Santos was expelled from Congress, former lawmaker Tom Suozzi, running as an avowed centrist, easily captured the suburban Long Island district.
“There are divisions in our country where people can’t even talk to each other. All they can do is yell and scream at each other,” Suozzi said after winning in February. “That’s not the answer to the problems we face in our country. The answer is to try and bring people together to try and find common ground.”
Democrats still face a steep uphill battle to retain the Senate, but with pragmatic candidates like Bynum and Suozzi, their chances of winning the House are a lot brighter. The road to a majority runs right through Happy Valley, and the center of a few swing districts like it around the country.
