We are more than a year away from the West Virginia primary election and a year-and-a-half before the 2024 general election, but the political chatter in the Mountain State is already at a high volume.
Two-term Gov. Jim Justice is officially in the race for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Joe Manchin. Rep. Alex Mooney has been in the race since last November and he and Justice are already sniping at each other.
National and well-funded political action committees are weighing in, attempting to put the other guy in the worst possible light. The question of what Manchin is going to do overshadows all the conversations like a spreading West Virginia oak tree.
There are already polls showing Justice way ahead of Mooney, and Manchin as a vulnerable incumbent. It is important to remember that any poll is just a snapshot-in-time. It is representative of the current political temperature, but not the entire forecast.
As former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld once said describing the Iraq War, “We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
That actually makes sense.
For example, here is a known unknown. Mooney and his supporters are going to subject Justice to withering attacks. They have already released 18 single-spaced pages of opposition research focusing on issues associated with business practices of Justice and his companies. How much, if any, will that hurt Justice?
Here is another one: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, the undisputed leader of the Republican Party in West Virginia, has taken the unusual step of backing a candidate in the primary — Jim Justice. Is that just a courtesy appearance or will Capito use her considerable clout to help Justice?
And another known unknown: No one knows what Manchin is going to do. Maybe he doesn’t even know, and he says he won’t decide for months.
Also, this will be one of the top three Senate races in 2024. How will the nationalization of the race impact the campaigns and the outcome?
Then there are the unknown unknowns: As John Lennon said, “Life is what happens when you are busy making other plans.” Even the most efficient campaigns with disciplined candidates face the ebb and flow of events that will impact the race.
One can make reasonable observations about the race today based on the current facts, but it is a mistake to project too far into the future. However, there is one prediction I feel safe making: If Manchin runs, the 2024 West Virginia Senate race will have the greatest national implications since John F. Kennedy’s victory in the state’s 1960 presidential primary.
