MORGANTOWN — The departure of athletic director Shane Lyons has made Neal Brown’s seat hotter than it’s ever been. While Brown has been assured he will finish out the final two games of the 2022 season and the new athletic director will decide his fate, the writing on the wall isn’t good.
That being said, however, Brown being fired is not a done deal. Interim AD Rob Alsop said very strongly that Lyons’ departure and Brown’s future are not connected.
Most of the WVU fanbase seems to assume that Brown’s time in Morgantown is all but up, but there does exist a possibility, however small, that he will get a fifth season at the helm of the program.
I do not, nor will I claim, to have any inside information about what Brown’s ultimate fate with the program will be, but if there is a chance he will be back, I think it is worth our time to build and examine a hypothetical case for keeping Brown as West Virginia’s head coach.
Do not mistake this as me advocating in either direction as to the future of Brown’s job, rather think of this as more of a thought experiment. WVU’s next athletic director will examine the good and bad of Brown’s tenure before making a decision and I think we should do the same.
The number-one reason to fire Brown is as obvious as it is abundant on Twitter — he has not won enough football games through four seasons.
Less obvious are the reasons for keeping Brown, which I believe are legitimate and worth exploring in an effort to understand what the new AD may consider.
The number-one reason to keep Brown is equally apparent — it would be very expensive to fire him.
The contract extension Brown signed in 2021 states that if he is fired before Jan. 1, 2025, his buyout would include 100% of his remaining contract. That drops to 85% for the final year of the deal in 2025. If terminated after this current season, Brown would be owed approximately $16.7 million plus the prorated amount for the rest of his 2022 salary.
That would be the highest buyout of any of the six Power 5 coaches who have been let go during the 2022 season. Nebraska’s Scott Frost ($16.4M) and Auburn’s Bryan Harsin ($15.8M) are the only others with buyouts over $12 million thus far.
WVU would also need to buy out the contract of any assistant coaches with deals that extend beyond this year. All of this is in addition to already paying Lyons’ buyout.
If money were no object, does that mean Brown would definitely be gone? Maybe, but so would any number of other underperforming college football coaches. There’s a reason these contracts are structured the way that they are and it’s for situations like this.
Beyond the money, what does Brown do well that would warrant his return?
Subjectively, I think Brown represents the program and the state well. Some college coaches will attract the spotlight no matter where they go or what they do, for better or for worse. Brown isn’t like that — you could probably count the number of times he’s made national headlines on one hand. Anecdotally, even those most fervent about wanting him fired often provide some caveat along the line of “he seems like a good guy” or “I really like him” before calling for his head.
Another subjective factor would be the kind of culture Brown has developed in the program. Without being inside the meetings and locker room on a daily basis it’s impossible to know specifics, but from the outside looking in, it all seems good.
If you’re using one hand to count the times Brown has made headlines, you can use the other to count the number of off-the-field incidents that have occurred during his tenure.
And while there have been a number of players who have transferred away from WVU, it’s not like they were all telling horror stories of their time in Morgantown. The most biting comment I can recall would be Akheem Mesidor saying he didn’t feel safe on campus.
A lot of current players also speak highly of the culture and atmosphere around the program. Last week, the media spoke with reserve linebacker Wil Schoonover.
Schoonover, who plays on special teams, has had a winding path to play for the Mountaineers, including three years in the Army and a tour in Afghanistan. Schoonover played baseball for one season at Potomac State before fulfilling his dream of playing football for the Mountaineers. Asked if the experience has lived up to his expectations, Schoonover said it has and then some.
“I didn’t know what all benefits came with playing here,” Schoonover said. “I think Coach Brown and the staff do a great job of preparing guys for the real world. There’s a lot of stuff I didn’t know that I know now … and I think that’s great. I think that’s great for these guys.”
The Fifth-Quarter Program that prepares student-athletes for life after college has been a main focus of Brown since his first year.
Finally, with respect to the product on the field, Brown and his staff have recruited and developed players relatively well.
According to 247Sports and Rivals, WVU’s average recruiting ranking under Brown has been 38.6 (247) and 36 (Rivals). It’s a slight improvement over his predecessor, Dana Holgorsen, whose eight-year averages were 40.4 (247) and 40 (Rivals).
That also includes this 2023 class, which is shaping up to be Brown’s best, ranked 31st (247) and 26th (Rivals) in the nation.
And the players Brown and company have brought in have largely developed into productive contributors. The offensive line, which has developed into one of the best units in the conference, is made up of mostly in-house recruits. Among the line’s top contributors, only guard Doug Nestor (Virginia Tech) and tackle Ja’Quay Hubbard (Virginia) are transfers and only Nestor could be considered a “finished product” at the time of his arrival.
At receiver, Sam James has rebounded to his 2019 form and Bryce Ford-Wheaton is finally enjoying his long-promised breakout season. All parts of the team’s three-headed rushing attack — CJ Donaldson, Tony Mathis and Justin Johnson — are also recruits.
The defense is harder to parse due to the rash of injuries this season and the exodus of talent through the transfer portal in years past. But the unit has been good before and has flashed at times this season. Linemen Sean Martin and Jordan Jefferson have developed into starting contributors while young defensive backs like Jacolby Spells and Andrew Wilson-Lamp have shown some promise, when healthy.
While the results have been mediocre at best, there has been some obvious progress made during Brown’s four seasons. A coaching change would hit the reset button on a lot of that. Is getting a new head coach worth starting over in many areas, plus paying Brown’s $16.7 million buyout?
That will be for the next AD to decide.
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