MORGANTOWN — Call it the secret stat for Thursday night that may mean the ball game, or it could be completely meaningless.
In either case, here goes: No school in the Big 12 has reached the red zone less than Baylor, while only two teams have allowed fewer red-zone possessions than West Virginia.
Now, numbers can be twisted and turned around, and such is the case for red-zone possessions, which judge a team’s success once it reaches the opponent’s 20-yard line.
For starters, if a team is scoring all the time on 50-yard bombs, then that team doesn’t have to worry about the red zone.
Such is the case for the Bears (3-2, 1-1 Big 12), who travel to WVU (2-3, 0-2) at 7 p.m. Thursday, looking to pick up its first-ever win in Morgantown.
Baylor has scored 26 touchdowns this season and 12 of those have come beyond the red zone, so the fact the Bears have been there the fewest times may not be a major concern.
WVU, too, can have its numbers misread. The Mountaineers have only allowed 15 red-zone possessions in five games. Only Kansas State (13) and Iowa State (14) have fewer.
Yet it can be said WVU’s defense has given up some big plays. The Mountaineers have allowed 20 touchdowns this season, with eight coming outside of the red zone.
“To me, it doesn’t make much of a difference if it’s the red zone or if it’s third-and-long,” WVU linebacker Jasir Cox said. “The guys out there, I know our coaches believe we can get it done, which is a unique part of our team.”
There is a sort of beauty to the red zone, though, in that the field becomes suddenly shortened.
With that, parts of the playbook may be closed, while another part can be dusted off and used. The offense has all the momentum. The defense has its back against the wall.
It becomes a battle of wills, but is there a science to it as a coach?
“The short answer is yes and no,” WVU defensive coordinator Jordan Lesley said. “You don’t know until you actually get there.”
If that seems a little evasive, well, welcome to the strange world that is the red zone.
“It depends on what you’re getting,” Lesley continued. “Are the formations any different? You’re going to react on what they give you and what you’ve seen on film.”
What the Mountaineers’ defense has seen so far, unfortunately, is a lot of red-zone trips ending up in the end zone.
“It’s more of an urgency for us whenever teams get in the red zone,” Cox said. “We have to dial in more. It’s a big thing for us to keep teams out of the end zone. Hold them to three points or give the ball back to our offense has to be our M.O.”
Of those 15 red-zone possessions against WVU, 12 have ended up with points, all touchdowns. WVU has yet to force a field-goal attempt from short distance.
“A lot has been big plays,” Lesley said. “Some of those, an offensive guy just made a good play. The majority of them are on us. They were mistakes by us. We haven’t been very good in forcing field goals.
“That’s probably the biggest area we have to improve on for the rest of the season.”
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