Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s soft approach to confronting criminal groups is not working. In fact, it seems to be backfiring. Last week’s wave of violence in Ciudad Juárez that killed 11 people is the latest event that calls into question López Obrador’s “Hugs Not Bullets” strategy to deal with powerful drug cartels.
Unfortunately, this comes at a time when there is less cooperation between Mexican and U.S. law enforcement agencies compared to previous administrations. We need our countries to restore those relationships.
The whole point of “Hugs Not Bullets” was to reduce violence by addressing its social roots and reducing military presence in the streets. In 2019, López Obrador created the National Guard, a domestic police meant to de-escalate the war on drugs.
The National Guard was billed as an agency that would get around the deep corruption entrenched in Mexico’s older security forces. But homicide statistics are trending upward, with Mexico logging 44,000 killings in 2021. Furthermore, the National Guard is made up of former soldiers and police officers, and it has already been accused of hundreds of human-rights violations.
Meanwhile, drug cartels are growing stronger. According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación dominates fentanyl and methamphetamine trafficking and has already eclipsed the notorious Sinaloa cartel.
López Obrador’s government is unfazed. As of this Monday, a member of his Cabinet said Mexico was staying the course with “Hugs Not Bullets.”
But the facts are appalling. By now, drug-related violence is showing up in places usually unheard of, including the city of Guadalajara. A few days ago, the CJNG made a show of force by blocking streets, burning cars and attacking stores to avoid the capture of two of its leaders. Clearly what crime organizations are perceiving from the government is permissiveness.
There is no easy fix when nearly 40% of Mexican territory is under cartel influence. But we think it would be constructive to revisit the Merida Initiative, a U.S.-funded international security plan that had components focused on investigating money laundering and reforming the judiciary that were never fully embraced.
López Obrador could also act on the social aspects of his “Hugs Not Bullets” plan instead of just talking about it.
There are signs López Obrador has given in to pressure to be more aggressive toward the cartels, as seen by the increased military presence in certain parts of the country and the recent arrest of drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero with, apparently, some cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. We’d like to see Mexico take advantage of U.S. intelligence more frequently.
The problem is that López Obrador is more concerned with optics than reality. “Hugs Not Bullets” is more mantra than policy, and the Mexican people are paying a price, even if their president does not want to admit it.
