West Virginia travels to TCU believing it still has a shot at the NCAA tournament

MORGANTOWN — Bob Huggins is not ready to throw in the towel at a late run for the NCAA tournament just yet, and he has his players seeing the same opportunity.

“If we win our last five or even four of the last five, we’ve got a great shot at getting into the tournament,” WVU guard Sean McNeil said following the Mountaineers’ 71-58 loss against No. 6 Kansas on Saturday. “We’re not trying to settle for anything. The goal is to win five, but I think four is the magic number. That’s what we talked about (in the locker room).”

You may ask how WVU (14-12, 3-10 Big 12), which sits in last place in the Big 12 Conference, still feels it can play its way into the NCAAs, especially after it’s lost 10 of its last 11 games?

WVU STATS

The answer would be the Mountaineers’ overall strength of schedule, which ranks ninth in the country, according to the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), as well as what the Mountaineers were able to accomplish in the first two months of the season.

Wins against teams like Oakland, UAB and Kent State seemed like afterthoughts at the time, but all three of those teams are in the top three of their own conferences, which means a lot in the world of factoring strength of schedules.

Obviously, a win against No. 24 Connecticut on Dec. 8 is the most quality of wins the Mountaineers have on their resume.

And then there is the parity that’s come with the Big 12, which has all 10 of its teams ranked in the top 69 of the NCAA’s NET rankings — WVU is No. 69 — which are used to help determine at-large teams and NCAA tournament seedings.

“We’re still not out of it,” McNeil continued. “There are pros and cons to this league this year. Everybody is really good, which plays into our favor. Oklahoma is 14-13 right now, and they are considered to be in the NCAA tournament. We’re struggling, but we’re not out.”

Using Oklahoma as a barometer, the Sooners are projected in the NCAA field by ESPN. The Sooners have quality nonconference wins against Arkansas and Florida, as well as an impressive Big 12 victory against Texas Tech.

Yet, Oklahoma’s strength of schedule is No. 21 in the country and it’s ranked No. 45 in the NET.

“Contrary to popular belief, we’re not out of it,” WVU head coach Bob Huggins said. “Oklahoma is 14-13, and they’re still in the NCAA tournament, according to the prognosticators. If they can be in, we sure ought to be in.”

All of it sets up one wild finish, not just for the Mountaineers, but also Oklahoma and Kansas State. Oklahoma State is not eligible for the NCAA tournament this season, due to its involvement in the FBI’s investigation into recruiting scandals.

Those three teams could mathematically stay alive for a shot at the NCAAs, but also could conceivably take themselves out of NIT contention by continuing to lose.

In WVU’s case, it needs to win three more games just to avoid a losing record for the first time since 2019.

Which sets up Monday’s 8 p.m. road game at TCU (16-8, 5-7), which seems to be in the NCAA field at the moment, but still needs to win to remain there. This game is a makeup from Jan. 3, which was postponed due to TCU dealing with COVID-19 issues.

“We’ve got to go take care of business,” Huggins said. “We’re going to play three games this week. If we lose two of the three, we’re probably done. There is still an opportunity there. As long as there’s a chance to keep fighting, we’re going to keep fighting.”

TCU’s strength is maybe WVU’s biggest weakness: Rebounding the ball.

No one does it better in the Big 12 than the Horned Frogs, who average 40.2 boards per game and is also the conference’s best offensive rebounding team.

That’s not good news for the Mountaineers, who were killed on the boards by Kansas, 49-32.

TCU forwards Emanuel Miller and Eddie Lampkin are both in the top 10 in rebounding in the Big 12, but the Horned Frogs have also lost three straight — against Texas Tech, Iowa State and Baylor — going into this game.

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