News outlets across the state reported West Virginia saw over 1,000 new cases of COVID-19 last weekend, most of them among unvaccinated individuals. From Monday to Wednesday, the Mountain State saw almost 1,500 more new cases.
The vast majority of new cases, both in West Virginia and across the country, are among the unvaccinated, but there are breakthrough infections.
A “breakthrough” case occurs when a vaccinated individual contracts COVID-19. To be clear, this does not mean that vaccines are not effective. (Breakthrough cases are not caused by the vaccine. Like all infections, breakthrough cases happen because of exposure to the actual virus.) On the contrary, breakthrough cases prove vaccines are doing their job.
Being vaccinated does not guarantee you will never get COVID. Being vaccinated does, however, minimize the chance you end up hospitalized or dead.
A New York Times analysis compiled data from states tracking breakthrough infections from when vaccines first became available through mid-June to early-July, before the Delta variant became the statistically dominant strain. Data for West Virginia was not available, so we’ll look at the numbers from two of our neighbors: Ohio and Virginia.
In Ohio, breakthrough cases accounted for 0.2% of hospitalizations and 0.5% of deaths. In Virginia, they made up 0.3% of hospitalizations and 1.7% of deaths (but still only 42 breakthrough infection deaths). To put that in perspective, unvaccinated people are 135 times more likely to be hospitalized for COVID in Ohio (155 times in Virginia) and 59 times more likely to die from it in Ohio (23 times in Virginia).
The COVID-19 vaccines are effective and save lives.
Some people are using breakthrough cases and revised guidance on mask wearing as proof that getting vaccinated is useless or that the science was wrong the whole time. Neither of those are the case. We’ve illustrated vaccines are essential, so let’s talk masks.
The CDC recently rolled back guidelines that allowed vaccinated individuals to go maskless. What changed?
The Delta variant.
Scientists are still studying Delta and what it can do, but initial findings indicate Delta is far more infectious than earlier strains. That means it’s easier to catch and easier to spread. Vaccinated people may be able to spread Delta as easily as unvaccinated people, which is why everyone needs to go back to wearing masks. At this stage of examining the variant, scientists believe Delta may be as contagious as chickenpox.
Chickenpox was a dreaded childhood illness — and the Delta variant is becoming one now, too. Delta seems to be a greater threat to children and young adults than earlier strains. According to CDC data, there were more than 46,500 children ages 0-17 admitted to hospitals for COVID Aug. 1-9, up 30% from the week prior.
As long as less than 70% of the population is fully vaccinated, the coronavirus will mutate and new variants will develop and spread, each with the potential to do more harm than the last.
Johns Hopkins virologist Andrew Pekosz explains: “Say … it’s a one in a million chance that a mutation will be advantageous to the virus. If you let the virus replicate itself 900,000 times, odds are that the advantageous mutation will occur. But if you limit the overall replication of the virus to 1,000 times, then it’s much less likely … . And that’s where public health interventions really help us a lot during this pandemic — by reducing the total amount of virus replication and therefore reducing the chances that the virus can improve or adapt.”
Get the COVID-19 vaccine. Wear a mask. This pandemic can’t end until you do.
