MORGANTOWN — A Wednesday COVID-19 briefing abuzz with numbers yielded a new slogan from Gov. Jim Justice: “Beat 588 bad.”
That’s a number floated by a reporter of those West Virginians who, it’s being bandied out there in the conversational realm, might be unwilling to take a vaccine: 588,000 people, about 40% of the vaccine-eligible population of 1,470,000 ages 16 and up.
It began when Justice said about 50.9% of the eligible population have received their first dose. “So we still got a ways to go.”
Right now, he said, the state is at 37.8% fully vaccinated. But he wants to get that to 70% fully vaccinated. “When we get to 70% these masks and all this stuff will be a memory.”
Last November, COVID-19 Czar Clay Marsh said that about 70% to 75% of the population would need to be immune to achieve herd immunity. That phrase wasn’t used Wednesday, but Justice’s comment prompted a series of questions.
In response, more numbers came. The 50.9% is about 748,634 people, leaving 721,366 still to be vaccinated. But if 588,000 are unwilling, there’s only 133,366 who might still be willing. That will fall far short of the 70% goal. “I hope and pray that it’s not right,” Justice said of the 40% number being suggested.
He wrote his slogan, “Beat 588 bad,” on a piece of paper and showed it to the camera. “If we don’t, we’re not going to get rid of these masks … We can’t stand 40% of our folks not wanting to take the vaccine. We’ve got to beat it really bad.”
Circling back to the 70% in response to another question, Justice backed off a bit and said it’s not a hard, fast number for unmasking. “The hard, fast information is going to come from the experts … We know without doubt if we get to 70% of the total eligible population this thing’s over.” We may reach only 55% or 62%. “It’s my job to push us.”
Marsh followed up on that, saying they want to give all West Virginians a more concrete set of expectations about when the masks may come off. But it’s not a fixed issue because of the variants.
“This is an event that continues to unfold,” he said. If things change dramatically they may have to adjust strategies to save lives. “The truth is we aren’t dictating to the virus what happens in the future; the virus is dictating to us.”
Because of the variants, he said, the window to get protected is upon us. CDC data shows that with 15,000 nursing home residents and staff fully immunized, there have been only 22 breakthrough cases where people got sick anyway.
Meanwhile, the variants are affecting younger people, he said. In Brazil, the origin of the P1 variant, more than half the people in ICUs are under 30. Now, the greatest spread is occurring in the age 10-19 group.
The Dominion Post asked Marsh about that age group. During discussion of reopening the schools, it was said kids up to age 15 were less likely to catch and spread the virus.
Marsh said the age 15 figure was based on pre-variant data from studies that show younger kids were only half as likely to catch or spread the virus. But the variants — California, Brazil, South Africa, UK — are more able to affect younger people. More are getting infected and getting sicker, and perhaps can more easily spread it.
He softened that by adding that tracking classroom data shows that with appropriate mitigation measures and with teachers and staff vaccinated, there’s been no appreciable classroom spread, and classrooms are still very safe.
Justice wrapped up by acknowledging that the pace of vaccinations has slowed. That was due in part, he said, to our strong start out of the gate. But the Johnson & Johnson pause has scared a lot of doubters.
He urged the doubters to consider how many deaths it might take to make them reconsider. And he urged all residents to ask that same question to their bosses and pastors, and to urge them to arrange with the Department of Health and Human Resources to set up vaccine clinics in their workplaces and churches.
TWEET David Beard @dbeardtdp
EMAIL dbeard@dominionpost.com
