MORGANTOWN, W. Va. — As of right now, the WVU men’s basketball team is set to begin preseason practices on Sept. 29, which is 42 days from its season opener on Nov. 10 against Fairleigh Dickinson.
That may change in the coming weeks, as the NCAA is expected to announce some changes to the sport’s schedule amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in September.
“What I’m happy about is we’re doing it now,” Kentucky head coach John Calipari told ESPN Radio. “We’re not waiting until two months from now saying, ‘Well, what do we do now?’ No, we’re doing it now to try to figure it out.”
What those changes may be is up for speculation, but the successful bubble formats used by The Basketball Tournament in July and currently by the NBA will likely have the NCAA’s attention.
The problem: How do you create a large enough and safe enough bubble for 32 Division I conferences that house 353 schools?
Other problems exist, too, like how much travel will be permitted and whether or not fans will be allowed into arenas.
Will there be a delay to the season? Will nonconference games be played?
These are also good questions that the NCAA are looking at.
For now, let’s have some fun and try to take an educated guess on what may and may not happen for the 2020-21 season.
Will there be an NCAA tournament in 2021?
According to published reports, the NCAA lost out on $375 million by canceling the 2020 NCAA tournament.
That is the governing body’s No. 1 source for yearly revenue, since football money does not go to the NCAA.
So, it’s highly unlikely the tournament can be skipped again.
The better question here: What will the format look like?
Could the NCAA expand the tournament for one year, especially if it decides to dissolve nonconference games?
That’s a possibility, one that Dan Gavitt, senior vice president of NCAA basketball, told ESPN the organization was looking into in terms of costs and locations.
However the tournament is formatted, you could bet good money there will be a 2021 NCAA tournament.
Chances of it being canceled: 0-5%
If changes are made to the nonconference schedule, could WVU play Marshall?
Some highly-unlikely scenarios would have to play out for this to happen.
Be very aware, though, that some type of change is coming for the nonconference season.
That could mean a delay. That could also mean a lower number of nonconference games.
The Pac-12 has already eliminated its nonconference hoops season, stating that its teams will not begin play until Jan. 1.
Other conferences may follow that lead. The NCAA may come out and say that’s the best way to go.
But, let’s get back to WVU-Marshall. Maybe the NCAA comes outs and says it will allow nonconference games only if the distance between the schools is within reasonable driving distance.
Even then, both schools would likely be in a heated debate on the site of the game(s), because the Thundering Herd would almost kill for a home game against the Mountaineers and WVU has no interest playing in Huntington.
And the Thundering Herd don’t want to be looked down upon, so they would not likely agree to play at the WVU Coliseum without a return game in Huntington.
Chances of WVU and Marshall playing this season: 0-10%.
What about the Battle 4 Atlantis?
This may be the biggest downfall of the nonconference season for the Mountaineers.
The Thanksgiving tournament takes place annually in the Bahamas and was also scheduled to feature top teams such as Duke, Ohio State and Creighton in November.
Utah was also scheduled to play, but the Pac-12’s decision to cancel all sports until Jan. 1 means tournament organizers are already searching for another suitable participant.
The concerning thing here is travel. Will the NCAA allow teams to fly internationally during a pandemic?
If the NCAA doesn’t allow it, that could also cancel plans for four other tournaments scheduled for the Bahamas, Jamaica and Puerto Rico.
The Battle 4 Atlantis organizers could move the tournament to the U.S. for this season, but has yet to announce any decisions.
Chances of WVU playing in the Battle 4 Atlantis: 50-50.
What about Pitt?
The two rivals are scheduled to finish their original four-game series — an additional two games were announced in June — at the WVU Coliseum on Nov. 13.
The only thing keeping this game from happening this season would be a cancellation of the non-conference season.
Chances that WVU and Pitt play this season: 80-100%
Other key games
WVU’s game against Purdue at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. N.Y. is another key game in question.
The same could be said for the Mountaineers’ opponents in the Big 12/SEC Challenge and the Big East/Big 12 Battle, which have yet to be announced.
Travel restrictions and whether or not there is a non-conference season would be the main thing there.
Which leads us to our final dilemma:
Can the Big 12 season be played in a bubble?
WVU assistant coach Erik Martin actually floated an idea on social media not long ago, which called for Big 12 teams to play their conference season in Kansas City’s Sprint Center.
Martin’s idea was for each team to play six games in a two-week span, return to campus for two weeks and then repeat this process two more times.
That would have the conference season finished in 10 weeks, which is the same amount of time the Big 12 schedules for a normal regular season.
That would surely cut down on travel costs. The Sprint Center should be available for those times.
The question becomes what would happen to a team that has a player(s) test positive for COVID-19?
Having teams return to campus for two weeks could be dicey, but so could the players’ academics if they were forced away from campus to play in a bubble for nearly three months.
A bubble situation has worked for the NBA, because it only had to worry about the players’ well-being and not about keeping their athletes on track to graduate.
This one is truly a tough call.
Chances that the Big 12 plays in a bubble this season: 50-50.
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