We are beginning to hear more optimistic predictions from Gov. Jim Justice and state health officials about the pandemic’s impact on West Virginia.
“I honestly believe within a week from today if we keep trending the way we’re going we’ll see a little better news and a little more hope,” Justice said during an interview on Talkline. “I think our numbers and our curve are still moving in the right direction.”
West Virginia is still seeing more cases every day, but the expected peak of the virus here has been moved up significantly, while the potential number of deaths has been revised downward, according to modeling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
IHME, which is the leading forecasting model used by the White House, now projects a peak in West Virginia between April 15-17 followed by a steady decline, and between 27 and
396 total COVID-19 related deaths by Aug. 4.
Earlier, IHME was predicting a peak in early May with total deaths possibly reaching nearly 600.
Meanwhile, IHME has revised significantly its modeling for the nation. It now predicts a total of 60,400 deaths by August, with a peak on April 12. That’s down more than 20,000 from just a few days ago. (IHME’s forecasts assume that social distancing remains in place through May.)
IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said the predicted outcomes changed because of an influx of additional information.
“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” he said.
There’s a common aphorism among statisticians: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” Models do help to make projections and give officials some sense of what might or might not happen even if they cannot be taken literally.
Murray believes their modeling shows the linkage between social distancing and the rate of infection. “Our projections are strengthened by the new downturns in more regions. This is evidence that social distancing is crucial.”
Gov. Justice and state health officials have emphasized the importance of social distancing at every opportunity. COVID-19 Czar Dr. Clay Marsh believes the willingness of West Virginians to keep their distance and follow other guidelines is making a difference, but he remains cautious.
“We want to be proud of what we are doing together, but we want not to be complacent,” he said during Wednesday’s briefing.
We are already hearing some opine that the significant steps taken in West Virginia and across the country were an overreach because the direst predictions may not come true. However, that argument ignores the more logical conclusion that the health and safety measures put in place, and most people’s willingness to follow them, are indeed helping to bend the curve.
Hoppy Kercheval is a MetroNews anchor and the longtime host of “Talkline.” Contact him at hoppy.kercheval@wvradio.com.
