CLEVELAND — Welcome to the final game of 2019, which just may be the most important game of the season so far, as No. 22 West Virginia battles No. 2 Ohio State at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland.
It is an opportunity for the Mountaineers (10-1) to prove how far they’ve come, or as WVU forward Oscar Tshiebwe put it, “It’s a chance for us to go earn some respect.”
Meanwhile, Ohio State (11-1) has already built an impressive NCAA tournament resume with victories against Villanova, North Carolina and Kentucky. That would be a career for most coaches. For Ohio State head coach Chris Holtmann, it’s simply been one heck of a non-conference season.
Many things to discuss here today, so we’ll get right at it. Here’s what you need to know:
TV: FS1 (Comcast 30, HD 857; DirecTV 219; DISH 150) for the noon game. BETTING LINE: Ohio State is a 7-point favorite.
ONE STORY BEFORE WE GET STARTED
During his 16 seasons, 14 NCAA tournaments and one Final Four as Cincinnati’s head coach, Bob Huggins said he could never get a deal signed to play Ohio State. It never bothered him, “I had fun with it,” Huggins said.
Huggins told a story of how former OSU athletic director Andy Geiger was making a big deal about how Ohio State was THE school in Ohio.
Huggins’ reply, “I said he’s right. They’re the football school. They sure weren’t the basketball school.”
WHAT ELSE DOES HUGGINS THINK ABOUT THE BUCKEYES?
The West Virginia coach threw out a very interesting stat on the Buckeyes’ shooting. After tracking it on film, WVU coaches calculated whenever an Ohio State player had a step-in shot, they made it 72% of the time.
Ohio State’s best team strength just may be it’s shooting. They are No. 1 among Power 5 schools in team 3-point percentage at 40.9%. The Buckeyes are also doing a good job defensively, holding their opponents to just 35% shooting from the field and 29% from 3-point range. Those defensive numbers make it difficult to predict a great offensive output from the Mountaineers, who are last in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting.
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUPS
WEST VIRGINIA
G-Jordan McCabe 6-0, 188, Soph. 2.9 ppg. G-Jermaine Haley 6-7, 215 Sr. 11.1 ppg. F-Emmitt Matthews Jr. 6-7, 210 Soph. 9.7 ppg. F–Oscar Tshiebwe 6-9, 258 Fr. 12.9 ppg. F-Derek Culver 6-10, 255, Soph. 11.4 ppg.
OHIO STATE
G-C.J. Walker 6-1, 195, Jr. 7.6 ppg. G-Luther Muhammad 6-3, 185, Soph. 7.4 ppg. F-Andrew Wesson 6-6, 220, Sr. 8.3 ppg. F-Kyle Young 6-8, 205 Jr. 8.8 ppg. F-Kaleb Wesson 6-9, 270, Jr. 13.9 ppg.
THREE GOOD QUESTIONS
WHAT’S THE SCOUTING REPORT? The biggest concern for the Mountaineers’ defense is getting spread out trying to cover all of the shooters. Ohio State big man Kaleb Wesson shoots 46% from 3-point range and the Buckeyes have six players who have connected on at least 11 threes this season. Add in forward Kyle Young is shooting nearly 70% from the field (mostly from inside the arc) and then Duane Washington Jr. comes off the bench and is hitting 50% from 3-point range and there is a real issue of WVU not being able to drop off anyone to help out on defense, which opens the floor for drives to the basket and such. Another guy to watch is Ohio State freshman guard D.J. Carton, who comes off the bench, but scores 11.1 points per game. He may actually be the best pro prospect on the Buckeyes’ roster. He was ranked No. 35 overall in the 2019 recruiting class by ESPN.
WHAT’S WEST VIRGINIA’S HISTORY AGAINST NO. 2s? Here is your stat of the day: The Mountaineers actually have a better record going up against the No. 1 team in the country than the No. 2 team. WVU is 5-9 all-time against the No. 1-ranked team and is 4-10 against the No. 2-ranked team. Some of those wins against a No. 2 have been memorable, though. You may remember that night in Syracuse in 2010, when the Mountaineers beat No. 2 Kentucky to advance to the Final Four.
WHAT EXACTLY DOES THE NET TELL US? The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is the rankings system used by the NCAA selection committee to select at-large teams and seed teams for the NCAA tournament. Currently, WVU is No. 10 in the NET, which is largely based on the fact that the Mountaineers’ opponents have combined for a 75.7% winning percentage, which is tops in the country.
Just like its old predecessor, the RPI, it is extremely difficult to sort through how good a team is in December, when most conference games are still in the days to come. Some basketball people may have a hard time believing WVU is the 10th best team in the country — or that San Diego State is the No. 1 team, according to the NET — which is evident by WVU being ranked at No. 22 in the AP poll.
What the NET actually does is give a current overall scope of college basketball, but isn’t necessarily a tool in determining future success or one team’s ability to win over another. Coming off a 15-21 season in 2018-19, it is kind of neat to see WVU at No. 10, but the rankings will have more validity come February.
PREDICTION TIME
This is the first time this season the Mountaineers are the underdog, which will be interesting to see how they react to that. Ohio State has already played in so many big games this year — North Carolina, Kentucky, Cincinnati and Villanova — so it’s hard to see how the Buckeyes get caught up in the emotion of another big game. Before I saw the point spread, I guessed Ohio State would be an 8- or 9-point favorite, but it is only seven, which tells me the people in Las Vegas are expecting a close game. I’ll go with an Ohio State victory, because they just have too many shooters, but I’ll say WVU covers the seven points, 73-68.
JUSTIN’S SEASON PREDICTIONS AGAINST THE SPREAD: 3-7.
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